There are lies - bad lies - - - and there are statistics

One lousy rainy day, I couldn't continue gardening and I thaught:

"Hey, lets make some HTML for all those statistic addicted weirdos running ECCP" LOL

Here is what I have to throw at you:

ECCP overall work prediction

Definately the last update: 23.10.2002 (dd.mm.yyyy,)

The both pair of keys are found and are awaiting confirmation, the winners will then be published.

There isn't much left to say. The 4^th order curve is the best one to match the whole evolution of the contest.

• The y-scale represents the 100% of the keyspace (DP's expected within 2^109 keys), while the solution was initially expected around 50% 58.421.659 DP's. (I know, that was already a weak prediction ;-)
  - The red dots represent all total values I could record since the beginning
  - The small black curve represents a 2^nd order forecast but looks irrelevant now for the prediction by its too bad quality factors,
  - The blue curve represent a 3^rd order.
  - The grey curve represents a 4^th order forecast, which has best fit currently.

Why this, you may ask?
Well, the first assumption was a linear (hoho) increase of users over the time, which forms an integral of 2^nd order.
The second assumption was a linear increase (even more laughter) of calculation power and assimilation capacity of all users. This would form an integral of 3^rd order.

But all this is theory, the true behaviour of the progress is just driven by the dumping power of all really dumping members, see the next pages for a better picture of all this.

Not enough confused? Continue 2/9

© Copyright 1999 - 2002 webwi.de All rights reserved.